This is starting to get a little scary Page 386

  • Benno 24 Aug 2015 15:19:23 11,716 posts
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    The FED were considering increasing interest rates on 17th of September. A stock market crash lowers the probability of this happening, and that lowers the probability of the Bank of England doing the same.
  • Benno 24 Aug 2015 15:22:19 11,716 posts
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    Although home owners (especially recent ones like me) might not be smiling if this leads to a house price correction as well.
  • Benno 24 Aug 2015 15:24:52 11,716 posts
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    convz wrote:
    +1 to Benno about topping up your index funds, I think this is a good time to buy. Better than at any other point this year anyway!
    Today is the best time to buy in the last 2 years. Tomorrow may be even better. Next week might be even better still.

    Edited by Benno at 15:25:01 24-08-2015
  • convz 24 Aug 2015 15:27:23 1,099 posts
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    Oh, that's very interesting - thanks Benno. I didn't know the interest rates were due to be increased in a few weeks. It makes sense it'd have an influence on UK rates too.

    Not sure how much of a correlation there is between REITs and property pricing, but both VNQI and IUKP are down quite a lot today.

    But then so are all of the markets, Bitcoin, gold etc, so if money isn't going into property then I have no idea where it is going (maybe will just hold as cash and wait for the dust to settle).

    And good point, cheap stocks! (which could easily get a whole lot cheaper still) - gutted I missed Apple at -12% though.

    Edited by convz at 15:29:07 24-08-2015
  • FWB 24 Aug 2015 15:33:50 55,487 posts
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    They weren't going to be increased in the UK this year - February was the time banned around. But this could very well hold that off.

    If you plan on selling in the next few months it might hit you, tho depends where you are. I'm in London. Else, if it's your home home, who cares about the value?
  • Benno 24 Aug 2015 15:40:04 11,716 posts
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    FWB wrote:

    If you plan on selling in the next few months it might hit you, tho depends where you are. I'm in London. Else, if it's your home home, who cares about the value?
    Because if the value pushes you into negative equity you will be stuck with your home. Being locked into a property with a mortgage, and being unable to sell is quite an uncomfortable position to be in, especially when you might need to move for work in the future.

    Arguably you shouldn't have leveraged yourself so much to make negative equity a real risk, but you never know what the future holds. With the baby boomer/gen X hangover mentality of 'house prices always go up', a lot of millennials have bought into 95% mortgages on daddy's advice. Regardless... Young people are kinda forced into high leverages due to the ridiculous cost per earnings ratio of houses; its your only choice if you want to own the roof over your head unfortunately.
  • Whizzo 24 Aug 2015 15:40:59 44,789 posts
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    The Damian McBride tweets are hilarious, he seems to think it's the apocalypse.
  • MrTomFTW Best Moderator, 2016 24 Aug 2015 15:44:12 47,495 posts
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    Remember destroy the brain or decapitate the head. It's the only way to stop them.

    Edited by MrTomFTW at 15:44:21 24-08-2015
  • FWB 24 Aug 2015 15:44:13 55,487 posts
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    @Benno I said if it's your home home (i.e. that's it, you've settled) it doesn't matter.

    Of course if your LTV is high, then yeah you might be fucked if you can't afford payments, have to sell and the value drops a lot.

    Edited by FWB at 15:46:46 24-08-2015
  • Benno 24 Aug 2015 15:45:33 11,716 posts
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    @FWB Ah sorry! :)
  • Benno 24 Aug 2015 15:46:18 11,716 posts
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    Whizzo wrote:
    The Damian McBride tweets are hilarious, he seems to think it's the apocalypse.
  • Benno 24 Aug 2015 15:49:53 11,716 posts
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    I went over to r/investing which is where I found that video.

    I didn't think the apocalypse was coming, that was until I found the one and only blizeH actually giving advice

    https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/3i6w50/those_of_you_who_had_been_waiting_for_this/cuduqvi
  • Whizzo 24 Aug 2015 15:50:03 44,789 posts
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    Not a video to watch with earphones! :-O
  • Psychotext 24 Aug 2015 16:09:21 64,298 posts
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    Pretty meaty drops.

    So what was the conclusion as to what this would do to house prices (if anything)?
  • Not-a-reviewer 24 Aug 2015 16:18:48 5,459 posts
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    Potentially very little, the banks are in a lot better position than they were, interest rates will stay low and demand high.

    Edited by reviewer at 16:19:09 24-08-2015
  • Deleted user 24 August 2015 16:19:42
    The idea that BlizeH takes risks on the stock market is the least believable thing I've read here
  • Not-a-reviewer 24 Aug 2015 16:19:50 5,459 posts
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    Benno wrote:
    I went over to r/investing which is where I found that video.

    I didn't think the apocalypse was coming, that was until I found the one and only blizeH actually giving advice

    https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/3i6w50/those_of_you_who_had_been_waiting_for_this/cuduqvi
    Christ.

    I wouldn't buy now anyway, I'd give it a week.
  • sport 24 Aug 2015 16:44:32 14,719 posts
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    What does this mean for those of us with no assets, no cash, and no hope for the future?
  • Not-a-reviewer 24 Aug 2015 16:45:52 5,459 posts
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    You're now part of the 98% instead of the 99%.
  • sport 24 Aug 2015 16:49:14 14,719 posts
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    \o/
  • Not-a-reviewer 24 Aug 2015 18:21:43 5,459 posts
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    And to head off some panic:

    https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/635807568028434432/photo/1
  • Deleted user 24 August 2015 18:28:07
    That's all good and well for you, but what about people who have just cracked some heads open and are feasting on the goo inside?

    Asking for a friend
  • Armoured_Bear 24 Aug 2015 18:38:39 25,102 posts
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    The whole financial system and modern economics is such a nonsensical steaming turd, quite depressing actually.
  • drhickman1983 24 Aug 2015 18:41:00 5,651 posts
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    The whole thing bewilders me. I'm almost glad I've never been able to afford a mortgage and / or investments.
  • RichDC 24 Aug 2015 18:59:02 8,043 posts
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    Post deleted
  • Benno 25 Aug 2015 10:34:40 11,716 posts
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    I love watching the media coverage - things like newsnight - where they interview all the experts for explanations and future predictions. The stock market is impossible to predict with any accuracy that goes beyond that of flipping a coin. This has been proven with swathes of research generated over decades of stock market performance.

    You've got to just sit back and watch.
  • Tonka 25 Aug 2015 10:41:06 28,853 posts
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    And still, we, as a society, heap power on them.
  • Tonka 28 Jun 2017 13:42:46 28,853 posts
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    I know this was about economics but now tat everyone is fat and lazy from several boom years I'm starting to worry about something else. How the internet is becoming more vital and vulnerable at the same time.

    Then I read this massively depressing blog post and am now shitting myself. Too late to plant potatoes in my entire garden. I think I'm going to start hoarding rice and beans in the basement.

    The internet as existential threat
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