This is starting to get a little scary Page 387

  • brokenkey 28 Jun 2017 14:05:11 10,235 posts
    Seen 10 hours ago
    Registered 17 years ago
    Lets go back to economics, and interest rate rises.

    In classic economic theory, inflation can be controlled by raising interest rates.

    Inflation is caused by demand exceeding supply, so by raising interest rates, you can control demand, by two effects
    1) debtors have to pay more interest on their loans, so they have less spare cash
    2) people with spare cash are more attracted to depositing it into a savings account, rather than spending it.

    As demand falls, supply increases, and so sellers reduce their prices (or avoid hiking them) in order to keep selling product.

    However, we're in a different place now. The current rise in inflation is caused by an unnatural currency devaluation (thanks Brexit). Again, raising interest rates should, normally help here - high interest rates should increase the value of a given currency, because the investment of foreign currency in government bonds will return a higher rate.

    The Bank of England hasn't raised rates because it's got a pretty good idea that it wouldn't raise the value of the Pound, but it would stuff up all the over-extended borrowers.

    Conclusion, we're going to back in 2008 before you know it, because they're going to have to either let inflation go mad, or bury borrowers.

    Edited by brokenkey at 14:06:23 28-06-2017
  • chopsen 28 Jun 2017 14:13:39 20,502 posts
    Seen 1 day ago
    Registered 14 years ago
    Supply vs demand for goods as services is *one* mechanism of inflation.

    Other mechanisms include supply of actual money (quantitative easing and interest rates again, but this time just the effect on money supply to the bank) and on effect of unavoidable costs (fall in pound rising costs of basic commodities used in providing good and services, e.g. oil).

    Given that central interest rates are as low as they are, and we've been doing QE for years, arguably we've been offsetting a deflationary pressure.

    Anyway. We're not going back to 2008, we're going back further. We're going back to the stagflation of the 70s. We're going to see rising inflation due to increased costs, and any attempt to raise interest rates (which are going to *have* to go up at some point) will hurt businesses and cause job losses.
  • nickthegun 28 Jun 2017 14:17:12 77,889 posts
    Seen 2 hours ago
    Registered 14 years ago
    Tonka wrote:
    How the internet is becoming more vital and vulnerable at the same time.

    Then I read this massively depressing blog post and am now shitting myself.
    I assume it pointed out that the most destructive weapons and potentially dangerous core infrastructure on the planet runs on software that you could probably hack on your iphone?
  • DaM 28 Jun 2017 14:40:42 17,329 posts
    Seen 9 hours ago
    Registered 17 years ago
    Tonka wrote:
    I know this was about economics but now tat everyone is fat and lazy from several boom years I'm starting to worry about something else. How the internet is becoming more vital and vulnerable at the same time.

    Then I read this massively depressing blog post and am now shitting myself. Too late to plant potatoes in my entire garden. I think I'm going to start hoarding rice and beans in the basement.

    The internet as existential threat
    I read a book a while ago (spent 20 minutes failing to find it), about America being brought to its knees by a simple hack of the financial systems. If no one is getting paid, or can access cash, things break down quite quickly.
  • Mr_Sleep 28 Jun 2017 14:55:10 22,593 posts
    Seen 2 hours ago
    Registered 17 years ago
    Tonka wrote:
    I know this was about economics but now tat everyone is fat and lazy from several boom years I'm starting to worry about something else. How the internet is becoming more vital and vulnerable at the same time.

    Then I read this massively depressing blog post and am now shitting myself. Too late to plant potatoes in my entire garden. I think I'm going to start hoarding rice and beans in the basement.

    The internet as existential threat
    An interesting and related thing I heard about this some time ago was from a fella who worked to alleviate y2k problems. While we all laugh at it, it was actually a serious problem that was solved in many cases before it ever caused any issues.

    His point was that we can learn a lot from that programming issue as it is indicative of a large number of the issues we have now with security. His fun statistic was that for every ten lines of code written by a person there will be at least one mistake.

    The point of all this is that security problems are often caused by bad coding and this is the primary solution to all these vulnerabilities. So, to solve the security issues is really the job of coders. The problem is that as all these programs are so complex now that they are riven with these mistakes. In theory AI coding would be the solution but someone has to code even the AI.
  • Technoishmatt 28 Jun 2017 16:50:44 3,412 posts
    Seen 6 hours ago
    Registered 5 years ago
    And skynet...
  • TheBlackDog 28 Jun 2017 17:06:43 1,069 posts
    Seen 2 weeks ago
    Registered 6 years ago
    Tonka wrote:

    The internet as existential threat
    Err, I'm pretty certain you can start Steam in offline mode now so....

    Backlog gets sorted at least. I'm a glass half full kind of person - just need enough gasoline and a massive generator.
  • Tonka 28 Jun 2017 18:56:56 29,543 posts
    Seen 3 hours ago
    Registered 16 years ago
    That's the spirit!
  • mal 28 Jun 2017 19:27:56 29,326 posts
    Seen 1 year ago
    Registered 17 years ago
    The state of the IOT insdustry is generating headlines practically daily, if you know where to look. We're probably a little away from a wannacrypt type attack causing havoc, because not quite enough people have hive thermostats or whatever, but sooner or later that could be the case. The only positive is that I suspect the NSA and whoever aren't positively looking to exploit our thermostats yet, so when they get inevitably hacked again, they won't give the underworld the master key to our hellish fire-like demise. Anything that has a microphone on and is installed in the living room could be an NSA target though.
  • sport 25 Jul 2017 09:12:58 15,003 posts
    Seen 2 hours ago
    Registered 14 years ago
    hmmm, I see a bad moon rising:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/24/bank-of-england-household-debt-bank-credit-card-car-loans
  • Tonka 26 Jul 2017 12:55:56 29,543 posts
    Seen 3 hours ago
    Registered 16 years ago
    We got the exact same articles in Sweden with quotes from the bank of Sweden.

    Cars and houses. Plus the fact that diesel cars might be banged and a lot of people are buying diesel cars so all that debt will be reeeeeeealy painful.
  • chopsen 26 Jul 2017 13:01:58 20,502 posts
    Seen 1 day ago
    Registered 14 years ago
    I don't get why PCP is considered such a threat. The loan is just against the depreciation of the vehicle while you have use of it. Therefore if you default there should be little cost to the lender, as the car acts as security and the value lost on that asset should be the same as the amound paid off on the PCP to date so...where's the risk? The only real issue I can see is increased PCP usage floods the 2nd hand market, depressing the value of the depreciated asset by more than predicted. But this can be "solved" by increasing the term of the PCP offer or offering similar deals on 2nd hand cars. Am I missing something?

    Edited by chopsen at 13:02:21 26-07-2017
  • Psychotext 26 Jul 2017 21:54:47 64,996 posts
    Seen 2 hours ago
    Registered 13 years ago
    In this particular instance it seemed to be more of an issue for the people leasing the cars than the individual.

    But yeah, leasing is a no brainer these days. I'm never buying a car again.
  • X201 26 Jul 2017 22:13:08 19,227 posts
    Seen 2 hours ago
    Registered 13 years ago
    The banks that are underwriting the loans will have calculated their return based on the used car market value, if the used car market collapses they end up with assets that aren't worth the money they lent against them, the same as the negative equity problem that hit home owners.
  • X201 27 Jul 2017 08:55:40 19,227 posts
    Seen 2 hours ago
    Registered 13 years ago
    But the concern is that salesmen have been bending (read ignoring) the rules in the same style that they did with self-certify mortgages.
  • General_Martok 31 May 2018 16:28:43 636 posts
    Seen 12 hours ago
    Registered 3 years ago
    Brace Yourselves
  • Frogofdoom 31 May 2018 16:37:06 13,275 posts
    Seen 3 hours ago
    Registered 7 years ago
    It's just another reason why Brexit is so stupid as we are expecting a favour from that orange twat.
  • challenge_hanukkah 31 May 2018 17:42:37 10,772 posts
    Seen 4 hours ago
    Registered 6 years ago
    Ah man, I fancied some pork legs too
  • nickthegun 31 May 2018 18:09:17 77,889 posts
    Seen 2 hours ago
    Registered 14 years ago
    Frogofdoom wrote:
    It's just another reason why Brexit is so stupid as we are expecting a favour from that orange twat.
    To be slightly fair, Leave probably assumed they would be dealing with someone who didn't have Alzheimer's.
  • challenge_hanukkah 31 May 2018 18:28:08 10,772 posts
    Seen 4 hours ago
    Registered 6 years ago
    Really? I thought being mutually retarded endeared them to each other.
  • Dirtbox 31 May 2018 18:53:29 91,099 posts
    Seen 1 day ago
    Registered 17 years ago
    I'm not sure why they aren't doing a tit for tat tariff on US imports to bolster the impacted industries.
  • Dirtbox 31 May 2018 21:15:32 91,099 posts
    Seen 1 day ago
    Registered 17 years ago
    Oh. Turns out that is precisely what will happen.

    http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-4006_en.htm

    As regards the US tariff measures, the EU will use the possibility under WTO rules to rebalance the situation by targeting a list of US products with additional duties. The level of tariffs to be applied will reflect the damage caused by the new US trade restrictions on EU products. The list of US products is ready: it was consulted with European stakeholders and supported by Member States. The EU notified its potential rebalancing to the WTO on 18 May and, in line with the Organisation rules, could trigger them 30 days later. The Commission will now in coordination with Member States take a formal decision to proceed with the rebalancing.
    What a complete waste of time, the whole things is ridiculous.
  • FWB 31 May 2018 21:17:40 55,921 posts
    Seen 29 minutes ago
    Registered 17 years ago
    Well, Juncker did say it: http://www.euronews.com/2018/03/03/juncker-responds-to-trump-s-trade-tariffs-we-can-also-do-stupid-
  • Khanivor 31 May 2018 21:43:51 44,033 posts
    Seen 1 day ago
    Registered 17 years ago
    Itís so Fucking transparent that almost everything Trump does is for the benefit if Russia. How the fuck he is getting away with it Iíll never, ever know.
  • JamboWayOh 31 May 2018 22:13:22 13,245 posts
    Seen 58 minutes ago
    Registered 6 years ago
    Who knew that an idiot would try to destroy the USA?
  • FWB 31 May 2018 22:23:35 55,921 posts
    Seen 29 minutes ago
    Registered 17 years ago
    Bankrupted his father's businesses and will now do the same to the USA. Skillz.
  • JamboWayOh 31 May 2018 22:54:17 13,245 posts
    Seen 58 minutes ago
    Registered 6 years ago
    Hang on didn't a fair amount of folk vote him in because he's a successful business man?
  • FWB 31 May 2018 22:55:53 55,921 posts
    Seen 29 minutes ago
    Registered 17 years ago
    People are gullible fuckwits. Nothing new.
  • GoatApocalypse 1 Jun 2018 06:56:10 5,672 posts
    Seen 3 hours ago
    Registered 9 years ago
    Good time to be a IV International Posadist
Log in or register to reply

Sometimes posts may contain links to online retail stores. If you click on one and make a purchase we may receive a small commission. For more information, go here.