The Monty Hall Problem |
The big list of things that People should really have got by now • Page 2
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Rhaegyr 5,499 posts
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Registered 10 years ago -
glaeken 12,070 posts
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Registered 17 years agoSort of along those lines is "no offence but" and then go onto say something really offensive. For instance no offence but you are a cunt. -
It is possible to care about how something looks, a gadget for example, without it being about what everyone else thinks/being cool. Some people just appreciate good design. -
DFawkes 32,785 posts
Seen 13 hours ago
Registered 16 years agoRhaegyr wrote:
IT'S 50/50. 2 DOORS. 50! 50!
The Monty Hall Problem
It's such a simple problem that, when you explain it properly, it makes perfect sense. But if you don't really think about it, you've just got 2 doors in front of you. That's 50/50. Except it isn't, because of that first door the host opening. But it is 50/50. But it definitely is not and switching leads to a win 2/3 of the time. But it shouldn't, because 2 doors! 2 DOORS!
Yet there are still people out there (smart people) who write papers saying it's wrong, and it really is 50/50! I most cases, they've made assumptions on certain things or changed the initial problem by changing the variables such as adding contestants, modifying who opens which door at which time and removing the choice to switch. There's still people debating it because of this. It's always nice to read, though. -
Trowel 24,512 posts
Seen 1 day ago
Registered 18 years agoA thread discussing anything contains, by definition, 'spoilers' of varying degrees. Especially if it was released yesterday and contains tunnels. -
HairyArse wrote:
You mean apostrophe's?
Apostrophes.
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That Die hard With A Vengence 'get x gallons of water into a y gallon container' puzzle
Rhaegyr wrote:
I'll never get the logic of this, but I guess I'll pick the other option because people better at sums told me to
The Monty Hall Problem
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DFawkes 32,785 posts
Seen 13 hours ago
Registered 16 years agocraigy wrote:
I can't tell if you're being wrong to be funny or not, because this is the Internet and it's confusing
HairyArse wrote:
You mean apostrophe's?
Apostrophes.
/re-reads own post for correct usages 5 times
/edits to add smiley because tone is hard to convey and I use them as a crutch all the time
Edited by DFawkes at 13:46:06 18-09-2013 -
spamdangled 31,803 posts
Seen 3 days ago
Registered 13 years agothe_dudefather wrote:
is that the old "if one wrong choice in three is taken away, what are your chances of winning the prize" problem?
That Die hard With A Vengence 'get x gallons of water into a y gallon container' puzzle
Rhaegyr wrote:
I'll never get the logic of this, but I guess I'll pick the other option because people better at sums told me to
The Monty Hall Problem
Been dividing mathematicians for decades, that one.
(current leading contender: it ISN'T 50/50)
Edited by darkmorgado at 13:48:38 18-09-2013 -
@darkmorgado that would be 50/50 wouldn't it?
If there was three doors it would be 33.3333333 etc but take a door away and that 33.3333333 becomes 50 as you would only have two choices
Or am I being really stupid -
Trowel 24,512 posts
Seen 1 day ago
Registered 18 years agothe_dudefather wrote:
They do it the slow way too (assuming the containers are symmetrical)
That Die hard With A Vengence 'get x gallons of water into a y gallon container' puzzle
/tilts containers diagonally to leave both half full -
Latin 4,075 posts
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Registered 16 years agoEMarkM wrote:
I went into Chipotle (burrito place) the other day and was having a bad day. The woman asked me if I was ok, I said not really, she gave me a voucher for 2 free burritos with sides and said "hopefully this will cheer you up!".
Also, one important law applies to physics, economics and the whole of your life:-
There is no such thing as a free lunch.
Cool story, I know.
/got a free lunch! -
spamdangled 31,803 posts
Seen 3 days ago
Registered 13 years agoGrax wrote:
Seriously, the depth at which numbers boffins have been debating this will give you a headache. There's actual academic papers written about it, I shit you not. I can barely get my head around some of the math they use to calculate the results, but I can sort of understand where the "it's not 50/50" side are coming from. You'd definitely think it would be 50/50, your brain screams at you that it is, but the taking away of the third door introduces some massive joker to the calculation. It's got something to do with still counting there as being 3 doors, even though there isn't, and the fact the "banker" has removed one he knew wasn't the prize.
@darkmorgado that would be 50/50 wouldn't it?
If there was three doors it would be 33.3333333 etc but take a door away and that 33.3333333 becomes 50 as you would only have two choices
Or am I being really stupid -
BeardedGamerUK 2,184 posts
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Registered 8 years ago@MrTomFTW Yes very good CM Punk, now spell 'through' correctly .gif)
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DFawkes 32,785 posts
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Registered 16 years agoThe Monty Hall problem is clear as day, IF (and it's a big if that is the cause of most mis-understandings) you don't mess around with the problem itself.
A contestant has to have a free, open choice of 3 doors. After he has chosen, the host will open an incorrect door. The contestant then has another free choice - switch their choice of door, or stick with their initial choice.
Mess with any of it and you mess up the logic. You can't just jump to stage 2 as that make it 50/50. You can't introduce more contestants. You can't take away the ability to switch door, or make the door the host opens complete random (giving it a chance to open the prize door). -
For fuck sake I have a bloody business mathematics test in 3 and a half hours. I did not need to read that bullshit monty hall problem. To stupid if he removed on of the doors for the equation it is 50/50 there is no answer it doesn't matter when you picked it it was 1 in 3 it wouldn't matter if it was 1 I'm ten. If all other options have been removed and you are left with two doors it is a 50/50 situation -
BeardedGamerUK 2,184 posts
Seen 3 years ago
Registered 8 years agoglaeken wrote:
Kicking someone's arse of course being something that Stephen Hawking's can't do
Err yeah that is a bit rubbish really. I would kick Stephen Hawking's arse in the 100 meters. -
BeardedGamerUK wrote:
OK
@MrTomFTW Yes very good CM Punk, now spell 'through' correctly
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spamdangled 31,803 posts
Seen 3 days ago
Registered 13 years agoGrax wrote:
glol!
For fuck sake I have a bloody business mathematics test in 3 and a half hours. I did not need to read that bullshit monty hall problem. To stupid if he removed on of the doors for the equation it is 50/50 there is no answer it doesn't matter when you picked it it was 1 in 3 it wouldn't matter if it was 1 I'm ten. If all other options have been removed and you are left with two doors it is a 50/50 situation
sorry, It did genuinely make me laugh though. Schadenfreude!
So if it's 50/50 why are you statistically far more likely to win if you swap your choice then? Eh? EH?
Edited by darkmorgado at 14:15:43 18-09-2013 -
Because at that point there's only 2 doors. -
Inertia 697 posts
Seen 2 hours ago
Registered 11 years agoYou make an initial decision which has a 66.66% chance of being wrong. Irrespective of what happens next. What happens next is the host, knowingly opens a door to reveal an empty door. Your initial choice was 66.66% and that hasn't changed. Now you have a 50/50 chance ONLY if you switch your choice otherwise it remains the initial 66.66%. So always switch to gain the new advantage of 50%. The host couldn't fail to open an empty door as he knows what lies behind the doors. So it doesn't change the condition of the original choice if you keep with it.
The original choice was made under the original conditions not the new condition. -
Something else people really should get is that talking about the Monty Hall problem is REALLY BORING. -
King_Edward 11,470 posts
Seen 4 years ago
Registered 11 years agoTrowel wrote:
Not only that, they cheat. They cut away from the scene to some villainous bullshit then cut back with a convenient 1 and 4 gallons in the containers.
the_dudefather wrote:
They do it the slow way too (assuming the containers are symmetrical)
That Die hard With A Vengence 'get x gallons of water into a y gallon container' puzzle
/tilts containers diagonally to leave both half full -
imamazed 6,708 posts
Seen 3 days ago
Registered 15 years agoDerren Brown did something on it innit -
nickthegun 87,711 posts
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Registered 16 years agoRedSparrows wrote:
Preach it, brother.
Something else people really should get is that talking about the Monty Hall problem is REALLY BORING. -
Grax wrote:
Good luck with that exam, I guess.
For fuck sake I have a bloody business mathematics test in 3 and a half hours.
If all other options have been removed and you are left with two doors it is a 50/50 situation -
spamdangled 31,803 posts
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Registered 13 years agoInertia wrote:
That's the one, cheers. I knew what I was trying to get at but couldn't think of how to explain it. It can really scramble your noodle though as it's so damn easy to fall into the trap of disregarding the removed door. Even when you know the answer, your brain can still do its best to fight against accepting it.
You make an initial decision which has a 66.66% chance of being wrong. Irrespective of what happens next. What happens next is the host, knowingly opens a door to reveal an empty door. Your initial choice was 66.66% and that hasn't changed. Now you have a 50/50 chance ONLY if you switch your choice otherwise it remains the initial 66.66%. So always switch to gain the new advantage of 50%. The host couldn't fail to open an empty door as he knows what lies behind the doors. So it doesn't change the condition of the original choice if you keep with it.
The original choice was made under the original conditions not the new condition.
Edited by darkmorgado at 14:23:31 18-09-2013 -
BeardedGamerUK 2,184 posts
Seen 3 years ago
Registered 8 years agoGrax wrote:
"Business mathematics test" , three of the most horrific words in the English language in the same sentence! And yes, good luck with the test!
For fuck sake I have a bloody business mathematics test in 3 and a half hours. -
Inertia wrote:
I honestly can't think of a single way in which this is correct
You make an initial decision which has a 66.66% chance of being wrong. Irrespective of what happens next. What happens next is the host, knowingly opens a door to reveal an empty door. Your initial choice was 66.66% and that hasn't changed. Now you have a 50/50 chance ONLY if you switch your choice otherwise it remains the initial 66.66%. So always switch to gain the new advantage of 50%. The host couldn't fail to open an empty door as he knows what lies behind the doors. So it doesn't change the condition of the original choice if you keep with it.
The original choice was made under the original conditions not the new condition.
I don't know if I am utterly stupid or that this is designed to make people be utterly stupid but either way it is just wrong
If you are given a choice of 3 doors, you pick one ou have a 66.67% chance of being wrong. When he removes a door and offers to let you switch doing so or not doing so is choosing again so either way it is between two doors (I think that where people get confused is not switching is effectively choosing that door again). Also it is stupid
.gif)
I don't know if I am utterly stupid or that this is designed to make people be utterly stupid but either way it is just wrong Sometimes posts may contain links to online retail stores. If you click on one and make a purchase we may receive a small commission. For more information, go here.
