Pacific war - how soon? • Non-Gaming • News and Politics • Eurogamer.net

Khanivor 19 Apr 2005 11:53:45 44,800 posts
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Anyone else got a nasty feeling that something really unpleasant is going to happen with China fairly soon? All this anti-ww2 feeling is getting out of hand. Someone is going to get killed soon, and that may start a ball rolling downhill which is going to be very difficult to stop.

The western world seems to be doings its best to ignore the situation. Any talk about China concenrs a bloody shambolic car manufacturer, not the state-sponsored rioting and looming threat of armed conflict over oil-drilling. Not to mention the recent legislation encouraging invasion of Taiwan.

China and the 21st century. It ain't gonna be pretty.

Deleted user 19 April 2005 11:55:35

I don't think Japan are really helping the situation though are they?

lost_soul 19 Apr 2005 11:56:24 9,372 posts
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My guess is that the Chinese will wait a couple of years and try and take Taiwan, figuring that the US is unlikely to retaliate against one of its biggest trading partners.

Machiavel 19 Apr 2005 11:58:04 5,964 posts
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They'd more likely take action (in the event of a declaration of independence) with the full knowledge of a 'war' is USA. I've heard lots of arguments that China needs to be seen to 'defeat' the USA, the hegemonic power, in order for its dreams of world ascendancy to be recognised and 'legitimated'.

Deleted user 19 April 2005 12:00:33

Give it a couple of years, maybe five and China could assume state control of all the US interests in China (much like Castro did in Cuba) and bring America to its knees. Without the sweatshop labour and production of goods that China supplies America, there would be problems.

Salaman 19 Apr 2005 12:00:54 24,162 posts
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What dreams of world ascendancy?

China is a very much inward turned nation with generally little concern for what's going past it's own perifery.

Deleted user 19 April 2005 12:02:15

Salaman wrote:
What dreams of world ascendancy?

China is a very much inward turned nation with generally little concern for what's going past it's own perifery.

Sounds like London.....;0)

Menace 19 Apr 2005 12:08:29 5,887 posts
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I don't think the US could take on China even if it wanted to..

China:

Stamina
100 hp.
(every 5th person in the world is chinese, they can take a lot of hits)

Speed
75 hp.
(its a big country and all those troops will take some time to move around)

Power
75 hp.
(They got plenty of arms, and they all know some lethal kung-fu)

Tactic
Patient build-up
(They will suck up the attacks with strength in numbers and then throw a suckerpunch)

US:

Stamina
25 hp.
(human life has a little more value in the us, they don't like losing their men (at least not if the public finds out about it))

Speed
25 hp.
(Lots of machinery, but its a nation of burger and pizza-eaters, so they can't move too fast..)

Power
100 hp.
(If they hit you, they hit you hard)

Tactic
Blitz
(they go for the throat, but if they miss they'll retreat fast)

Edited by Menace at 12:10:00 19-04-2005

Khanivor 19 Apr 2005 12:19:45 44,800 posts
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Salaman wrote:
What dreams of world ascendancy?

China is a very much inward turned nation with generally little concern for what's going past it's own perifery.

Tell that to the Tibetans. Now their periphery is butting up against India.

China has resource issues. There are not enough to supply its growing industry nor people. Oil is the biggest problem, that's why China is the world's biggest coal pollutor and lets thousands and thousands die each year dwon pits. They need oil. The US has done its best to protect the Arabian oil supplies so China is using WW2 as an excuse to push Japan around concerning the disputed oil fileds which lie off both of their coasts.

China is probably calculating that the US is otherwise engaged, and with a stretched ground military and a President with terrible approval ratings they are no doubt hoping to throw some weight around. It's a good thing that Iraq has required very little in the way of naval or air power otherwise we could well have already seen China make a military move.

The world is looking the other way. No one is telling China to stop using their populace to threaten Japan. And Japan will throw up shileds around the WW2 issues, becoming more defensive and insular in their relations with their local neighbours. There's an awful lot of history which has never been dealt with, in this area of the world where saving face is more important then not dying.

GrandTheftApu 19 Apr 2005 12:46:32 6,117 posts
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To be honest anti-japanese feeling is rife throughout asia due to their brutal occupation during ww2. The 'Rape of Nanjing' is the most widely known of their attrocities, but millions died across asia through slave labour and confiscation of crops. The current mood in China could easily spread to Vietnam,Thailand,Myanmar or South Korea.

Chris_C 19 Apr 2005 13:02:51 458 posts
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I wouldn't worry about this whole textbook business too much. The same thing has been done a good few years back, and repeated futher back in time as well, with both sides using the same arguments and basically saying the same thing.

China and Japan are large trading partners, so both countries do not want things to get completely out of hand. No doubt China is applying a bit of pressure on Japan over the oil field issue, but I don't see the issue becoming more than a temperory thing. Neither nation are willing to committ their ships in military actions against each other for the time being. Start worrying when either Japan or China moves their navy into Diaoyu islands.

The interesting thing is that the communist party does not require its population to agree over an issue before committing to it, so I largely see the riot as unecessary. I do not see why the communist party need to stir up the protest.

At the end of the day, for the time being, both countries rely too much on each other to consider breaking of relations.

Khanivor 19 Apr 2005 13:10:47 44,800 posts
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If so, then why is China desperatly building up its naval power? Why is it so concerned with aquiring modern military tech from Europe?

While I agree that the commercial ties are strong enough to strongly exclude the outbreak of full-scale war, I sense a little too much complacency in saying trade is guaranteed to stop conflict.

Chris_C 19 Apr 2005 13:20:26 458 posts
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China feels that its navy is not enough to protect China against a full scale invasion from the United State. This belief has been with the chinese army for a long time now, and is central to its naval, and air force increase. Of course, the increase of naval power does have the side effect of increasing power projection. I do not know the actual motive of the inner officals and generals, so I can accept the buliding up of naval power for the use of both defense and offense.

China's military technology are extremely behind in terms of their western counterpart, and in this day and age, I am not confident of China's ability to just chuck manpower at a problem, so I do not see aquiring military tech from Europe as an offensive move. Taiwan obtains a lot of modern hardware from the states, and it is very clear that Taiwan has every intention of using those arms defensively.

Looking at the map, a thought did occur to me. Diaoyu island is closer to Taiwan than China and Japan. I am wondering why Taiwan would not want to have a much bigger buffer zone between them and China + Japan. Of course Taiwan does not want to piss off China too much, but I do not see why Taiwan does not lay claims to those borders from Japan.

Tiger_Walts 19 Apr 2005 13:30:38 16,674 posts
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I think they should just sort it out over Navy Field.

Lutz 19 Apr 2005 13:30:43 48,870 posts
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Man power doesn't mean much in war.

Take WWII, in the trenches. German troops were outnumber, IIRC, 12 to 1 on the Eastern front, but they could hold the Soviets back as the soviets had about 1 rifle per 20 men. If a German lost a rifle he shrugged and went and got another from the quartermaster.

Look at the sheer damage the USA can dish out from the ocean though. It's navy is pretty much unsurpassed in the world, and it's long range bombers can take off in an Allied country and hit any part of China, without China even knowing they're there most of the time.

Even on the ground, many of the tanks of the Chinese are or similar spec to the Russian T-55 tanks, which were utter destroyed in the Gulf War, even though the Iraq Army had about 5 times as many tanks. The tanks could fire a round and hit a US (Or UK) tank and it wou;dn't break the armour, where as the return volley would not just break the armour, it would also shatter the tank entirly.

Having the worlds largest standing army is one thing. Using it effectivly is something else.

If the current "layout" of China military is to be believed (Well, by our media) then I can't see how China could even fight a war with the USA, let alone win it, and let alone any Allies that would join in...

Menace 19 Apr 2005 13:32:31 5,887 posts
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Aren't you forgetting the nukes..?

Tiger_Walts 19 Apr 2005 13:34:20 16,674 posts
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Hitting a Tiger in Combat Mission and having it ricochet off is soul destroying. :/

Lutz 19 Apr 2005 13:35:25 48,870 posts
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Menace wrote:
Aren't you forgetting the nukes..?

Well, if it DID go that far than AFAIK China wouldn't even stand a chance.

I'm not too sure on China nuclear capability, but I'm doubting that they've got nukes that could be launched from China to hit the US. They may have a few nuclear carrying subs though.

Even so, if so much as one nuke hit the USA I doubt you'd find much of China standing afterwards.

Menace 19 Apr 2005 13:37:06 5,887 posts
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US invading China? Look at Iraq.. they can't control that situation.. now, I don't know the figures, but I believe China to be much bigger than Iraq.. Excuse me but some of your statements seem very naive..

Menace 19 Apr 2005 13:39:35 5,887 posts
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I believe the nukes to be the only reason there hasn't been a conventional war in years (between so-called superpowers)..

And you seem to think that a war like that would be fought between US and China alone.. so what if China couldn't hit the US mainland with nukes.. they could hurt the rest of the world, and once the ball is rolling it'll be the end of the world as we (think) we know it..

Khanivor 19 Apr 2005 13:40:46 44,800 posts
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Lutz wrote:

If the current "layout" of China military is to be believed (Well, by our media) then I can't see how China could even fight a war with the USA, let alone win it, and let alone any Allies that would join in...

Which is a damn good reason not to sell them anything better.

The longer we can hold China back the more time the country has to become something a little more palatable.

I very much doubt China would have its current borders if it wasn't for US troop deployments in the region and the Pacific Fleet. Imagine if China were to take over Taiwan and the effect that would have on our supply of computers and related tech. In this digital age it's a worrying prospect.

ssuellid 19 Apr 2005 13:42:34 19,142 posts
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Lutz wrote:I'm not too sure on China nuclear capability, but I'm doubting that they've got nukes that could be launched from China to hit the US. They may have a few nuclear carrying subs though.

They own a whole load of top spec Russian kit including various stuff the US turned down as they did not believe it was technically possible from the Russians. SRAM jet anti ship missiles, complete with the missile cruisers. Plus shed loads of subs.

This WW2 book stuff is China playing games with Japan over gas rights. If China gets the rest of the region onside it then I guess it will do what it wants. Maybe they will even see if the US is bluffing?

Deleted user 19 April 2005 13:43:16

Menace wrote:
US invading China? Look at Iraq.. they can't control that situation.. now, I don't know the figures, but I believe China to be much bigger than Iraq.. Excuse me but some of your statements seem very naive..

Any attack on china would not focus on control it would be an assault on infrastructure, industry and the civilian population as a whole in an effort to econmicaly and socially destroy the place.

Lutz 19 Apr 2005 13:43:44 48,870 posts
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Menace wrote:
US invading China?

Er... no. Didn't say that.

Look at Iraq.. they can't control that situation..

No, they can't fight guerilla tactics or deal with terrorist very well. In REAL terms, what threat is Iraq to the USA now? Absolute zero. Much of the Gulf wars were over pretty damn fast in terms of knocking out the enemies attacking forces.

now, I don't know the figures, but I believe China to be much bigger than Iraq...

Yes, they are. They're also a world behind in technology. That accounts for an AWFUL lot, as history as proven time and time again.

Menace 19 Apr 2005 13:44:46 5,887 posts
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DiscoStu wrote:
Any attack on china would not focus on control it would be an assault on infrastructure, industry and the civilian population as a whole in an effort to econmicaly and socially destroy the place.

Yeah, that's what I mean't.. they wouldn't invade the country..

Edit, reply to above also.. Exactly.. I mean, so what if they're behind on technology. You can't win against Guerilla warfare, which is what the US will be facing whereever they go.. (talking invasion here).. Loot at Czeczenia (versus the russians), or Afghanistan.. (both US and Russia).. its a losing battle.. (besides I think there are no winners in war)..

Edited by Menace at 13:48:22 19-04-2005

Lutz 19 Apr 2005 13:46:56 48,870 posts
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ssuellid wrote:
They own a whole load of top spec Russian kit including various stuff the US turned down as they did not believe it was technically possible from the Russians. SRAM jet anti ship missiles, complete with the missile cruisers. Plus shed loads of subs.

A whole armies worth of stuff? I doubt it. They've probably got a few very well kitted out battalions (or whatever) and a LOT of grunt force.

Saying that, all this is IMO, I certainly don't know enough on the subject.

Menace 19 Apr 2005 13:50:15 5,887 posts
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Lutz wrote:
Saying that, all this is IMO, I certainly don't know enough on the subject.

Goes for me also! =)

Lutz 19 Apr 2005 13:52:49 48,870 posts
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Menace wrote:
Goes for me also! =)

heh.

Still, I really don't see how China can currently compete with the US. Give it 10 years though, and you may have an entirely different situation on your hands...

ssuellid 19 Apr 2005 13:54:45 19,142 posts
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They are slowly modernising everything but when you have an army of 2 million and an airforce of half a million it takes time. But they still have a hell of a lot of ex Russian kit and a growing expertise with cutting edge tech from outside investment.

Lutz 19 Apr 2005 13:55:33 48,870 posts
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Menace wrote:
Edit, reply to above also.. Exactly.. I mean, so what if they're behind on technology. You can't win against Guerilla warfare, which is what the US will be facing whereever they go.. (talking invasion here).. Loot at Czeczenia (versus the russians), or Afghanistan.. (both US and Russia).. its a losing battle.. (besides I think there are no winners in war)..

Depends WHY the war starts though doesn't it? If your sole objective is to crush the enemy, then the US probably won't even set one foot on Chinese soil.

If they want to occupy afterwards, well, that's a different matter. They wanted to occupy Iraq, hence all the problems. If they simply wanted to crush it's military forces, then the war would have been over ages ago.