Following Coronavirus Page 1184

  • nickthegun 5 Apr 2021 14:59:19 86,026 posts
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    RGeefe wrote:
    I've been on two tests a week for ages. Their effectiveness is shite, I gather.
    Iím no statistician but I figured the whole house doing two a week would compensate for most inaccuracies.
  • Decks 5 Apr 2021 15:10:42 29,411 posts
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    I think false positives are just as common as false negatives though aren't they? So they seem pretty pointless to me.
  • nickthegun 5 Apr 2021 15:21:14 86,026 posts
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    Dunno. We have done *counts on fingers* a lot of tests and not had a positive yet.
  • Not-a-reviewer 5 Apr 2021 15:28:47 7,268 posts
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    Iím pretty sure you only get false negatives, mostly from people not being experts in testing + doing it to yourself isnít going to give the best results if you donít like deepthroating things.

    Edited by Not-a-reviewer at 15:28:55 05-04-2021
  • richardiox 5 Apr 2021 15:37:25 9,593 posts
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    In the grand scheme of the pandemic, doing two household tests a week is going to do more good than harm, even allowing for the shonky LfT tests.

    Will hopefully catch a reasonable number of presymptomotc and asymptomatic cases and break their transmissions chains. The way I see it, in terms of keeping R below one, every little helps.

    We've been doing two a week since schools went back at the insistence of the lads primary school.

    The next few weeks will be interesting...once the vaccines kick in for the 50-60 year old demographics from the last month of jabbing. Unlike previous vaccination cohorts, they're much more likely to be out and about in workplaces. If the vaccines do indeed reduce transmission it should show in our R number over the next couple of weeks.

    In the meanwhile, cases are back to coming down around 20% a week even despite schools returning. Look to Israel to see the longer term effect of a nearly fully vaxxed adult population,.their case rate has plummeted in the last few weeks.
  • Dougs 5 Apr 2021 15:42:35 98,694 posts
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    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/24/covid-rapid-lateral-flow-tests-should-not-be-used-for-test-and-release

    Article here on false positives
  • ZuluHero 5 Apr 2021 20:36:27 10,095 posts
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    Speaking about false negatives, when I took a home test, I had no idea my sinus went back as far, and now that I know there would have been no way I'd have willingly shoved something that far up my nose.
  • ZuluHero 5 Apr 2021 20:38:02 10,095 posts
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    https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/05/06/covid-testing-instruments/5a6200ff595fc059d436dc820c276202f7a702d1/diagram-335-Artboard.png
  • askew 5 Apr 2021 20:39:29 23,117 posts
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    literally scraping your brane
  • RGeefe 7 Apr 2021 07:10:58 1,864 posts
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    So errr...we might need a passport to go to Primark.

    At what point do they start the 180?
  • mothercruncher 7 Apr 2021 07:31:57 19,126 posts
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    I really should 180 at the door of Primark- the baby corner, where the tills happen to be, distinctly and consistently smells of puke. Itís either happening most weeks or baby Satan threw up there once.
  • Blackmarsh63 7 Apr 2021 07:34:18 4,076 posts
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    4195 deaths in Brazil yesterday 😯
  • cowell 7 Apr 2021 07:51:49 2,241 posts
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    Reading the first few pages of this thread is quite something a year later
  • dfunked09 7 Apr 2021 08:13:11 1,901 posts
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    Quite amusing that the Corona jokes just stopped after a while after people universally realised they were never funny to begin with.
  • RichDC 7 Apr 2021 08:23:04 9,067 posts
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    Haha, I'd forgotten about derailing the thread to craft beer for two or three pages.
  • Dirt3 7 Apr 2021 09:50:55 1,555 posts
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    Blackmarsh63 wrote:
    4195 deaths in Brazil yesterday 😯
    If it's in reference to the Beeb article, it's poor reporting IMO.

    Basically the stats play catchup over the weekend, and will play catchup more because of the Easter weekend.

    2 days ago Brazil reported 1,600 deaths. So the average is well below the 4000 figure.

    In fact the number of deaths per day in Brazil actually looks like it is coming down to me.

    Similar issues will appear with the Polish stats, who reported 60 deaths yesterday and 600 today.

    Unless there is some sort of divine intervention that stops people dying at Easter of course.
  • RyanDS 7 Apr 2021 09:53:00 13,939 posts
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    I thought the whole point of easter was dying?

    Then 3 days later you get negative stats?
  • Dirt3 7 Apr 2021 09:55:40 1,555 posts
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    RyanDS wrote:
    I thought the whole point of easter was dying?

    Then 3 days later you get negative stats?
    Only if you are one particular bloke. Or eat too much chocolate.
  • bzzct 7 Apr 2021 10:48:11 2,346 posts
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    @Dirt3 I think you're over-stating the importance of the Easter reporting delays to Brazil's numbers. And the prevailing opinion certainly does not seem to be that they're coming down.

    As soon as next week, Brazil may break the record U.S. seven-day average for COVID-19 deaths, according to a model by the influential Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The U.S. average for daily deaths peaked at 3,285 in January.
    'A biological Fukushima': Brazil COVID-19 deaths on track to pass worst of U.S. wave
  • Psychotext 7 Apr 2021 10:49:32 69,978 posts
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    Vaguely related, Wales's numbers are looking pretty damn good right now, but I wonder if it's just that people didn't really bother getting tested over the holiday weekend.
  • General_Martok 7 Apr 2021 10:54:18 2,096 posts
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    I wonder if someone has correlated Covid death rate with government type (Liberal, conservative, populist, suicidal sovereignty S&M)
  • askew 7 Apr 2021 10:55:28 23,117 posts
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    Shit = high
  • Dirt3 7 Apr 2021 11:14:37 1,555 posts
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    General_Martok wrote:
    I wonder if someone has correlated Covid death rate with government type (Liberal, conservative, populist, suicidal sovereignty S&M)
    A lot of the "really bad" places won't quote the figures properly.

    The interesting one (if you are a statistician) is to compare the reported figures with the excess death rates.

    Of course a lot of countries won't report the death rates either. But the ones that do are, how shall we say, interesting.

    Of course, some of the differences are due to the different criteria countries use to qualify a death.
  • Psychotext 7 Apr 2021 11:16:30 69,978 posts
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    Dirt3 wrote:
    Of course, some of the differences are due to the different criteria countries use to qualify a death.
    O_o
  • Dirt3 7 Apr 2021 11:36:48 1,555 posts
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    Psychotext wrote:
    Dirt3 wrote:
    Of course, some of the differences are due to the different criteria countries use to qualify a death.
    O_o
    UK currently uses 28 days after a +ve covid test.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/public-health-england-death-data-revised/

    Obviously you could use longer timescales. Kind of logical that the longer the timescale, the less correlation there would be between the death and cause of it due to covid.

    Also I have no idea whether there is any sort of additional selection criteria. For example, if someone tests +ve, then gets run over by a bus 10 days later, does that count as a covid stat, or not ?

    If you wanted to "fix" the figures you could have it that covid has to be mentioned on the death cert, and then put doctors under pressure not to mention it.

    This is why excess death data is coming under some scrutiny. Although the issue there is that it is difficult to establish a firm baseline, as the actual deaths vary from year to year due to stuff like flu epidemics.

    So in summary, non trivial, even though it sounds initially like it might be.
  • Not-a-reviewer 7 Apr 2021 11:50:39 7,268 posts
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    If they get hit by a bus then it isnít supposed to get recorded as COVID. Iím sure it may have done a few times but the total will be negligible.
  • Psychotext 7 Apr 2021 13:33:46 69,978 posts
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    Dirt3 wrote:
    UK currently uses 28 days after a +ve covid test.
    Sure, but you'd literally just talked about excess deaths. You'd need to be going some to define a death any differently!

    I SAW A TWITCH, STILL ALIVE!

    Edited by Psychotext at 13:34:19 07-04-2021
  • Rogueywon 7 Apr 2021 13:48:18 11,357 posts
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    My crude understanding is that neither measure is perfect. "30 days" mixes in a small number of deaths from non-Covid factors (albeit this is a very small number), while "excess deaths" will include some deaths not directly caused by Covid, but rather attributable to healthcare systems not being able to respond to other problems. On that basis, "excess deaths" is probably more useful to sociologists and "30 days" is probably more useful to epidemiologists.
  • Psychotext 7 Apr 2021 16:59:46 69,978 posts
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    Seems kinda pointless for longer term stuff anyway given we also have "COVID on death certificate".

    Unless you're a full on swivel-eyed loon you'll likely trust a Doctors opinion as to if COVID played a part in someone dying.
  • simpleexplodingmaybe 7 Apr 2021 17:03:12 17,132 posts
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    Its annoying that the news gives a daily update on the 28 day after a test number as a definitive total when the ONS death certificate count is available and more accurate (if slower to report)
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