Following Coronavirus Page 295

  • Dirt3 1 Apr 2020 10:58:11 984 posts
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    Malek86 wrote:
    I don't think the governments in the world will simply be able to give money for free to everyone for several months.

    And arguably, the real trouble will start when the lockdowns are lifted and the government says "well people, no more for you", and then suddenly everyone will see that they are out of a job and nobody's giving them money anymore.
    Well they will be able to do it indefinitely, that but money will become worthless.

    People think government money is "free" are in for a big wake up call.
  • Malek86 1 Apr 2020 10:59:52 10,025 posts
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    @Dirt3 if they give you free money in order to stop civil unrest, but that money is worthless, that's not going to do a great job of stopping civil unrest.

    But then again, I suppose civil unrest will become effectively unavoidable at some point.

    It gets worse, of course. Many industries aren't actually necessary, they only exist as entertainment or convenience. As people won't have any money, they will tend to skip those things, which will make kickstarting the economy again even harder.

    Edited by Malek86 at 11:02:30 01-04-2020
  • nickthegun 1 Apr 2020 11:03:56 81,348 posts
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  • Dirt3 1 Apr 2020 11:05:48 984 posts
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    Malek86 wrote:
    @Dirt3 if they give you free money in order to stop civil unrest, but that money is worthless, that's not going to do a great job of stopping civil unrest.

    But then again, I suppose civil unrest will become effectively unavoidable at some point.
    It will postpone it for a bit. Which is what governments like doing.

    Kicking stuff into the long grass so someone else has to deal with the problem. Take the Greek debt crisis as a prime example.

    Only this time the grass isn't very long and the kick won't be anywhere near far enough.

    None of this is without precedent. The exact circumstances this time may be different, but history tells us everything we need to know.
  • Nexus_6 1 Apr 2020 11:06:20 4,880 posts
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    @Dandy11 that's kind of my point - your perception of a wider issue is being shaped and influenced by your own fairly narrow experience.
  • General_Martok 1 Apr 2020 11:09:24 1,170 posts
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    fontgeeksogood wrote:
    Fuck the economy. If this doesn't teach us how over important we place our current flavor of capitalism over everything, that's a bigger problem than the current covid imo.

    Be great to have a bit of normalisation back in play, and stop the insanity of public money bailing out private enterprise when basic protection equipment is not available in hospitals.

    I'm prepared for my 'rung' on this pretend ladder to be as greasy as anyone else's to make this happen
    "Fuck the economy"? Really? How are resources going to be distributed to keep you alive? Would you like to go back to hand to mouth?

    What you mean is fuck capitalism and that is exactly what is happening. Bail outs are not capitalism and nationalisation are not capitalism. It's socialism.

    Bail outs are half baked attempts at socialism with the aim of getting the capitalist economy back up on it's feet.

    Having governments pay 80% of your salary is not capitalism. The fact they're doing this via the company that employs you is purely logistical. If they tried to pay you directly overnight they'd fuck it up
    cause the infrastructure isn't available. Again this is effort to keep the structure of the economy in place for when it's out of stasis.
  • Malek86 1 Apr 2020 11:10:11 10,025 posts
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    @Dirt3 true. Well, history also tells us that such crisis have always been overcome. I wouldn't be worried about the world in the long term. It's survived much worse.

    I'm more worried about myself and my family in case things go deep south.
  • Dandy11 1 Apr 2020 11:15:08 125 posts
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    @Nexus_6 well considering I'm driving a pretty large area. I say my view is probably a bit more open than yours
  • macmurphy 1 Apr 2020 11:16:38 4,272 posts
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    just to point out that austerity has a measurable impact on the life expectancy of a population.

    If we think in terms of years gained versus lives saved, what we are actually doing is saving a lot of people with a very limited life expectancy. So weíre not gaining many years. And if austerity does follow (and Iím not saying it definitely will but it certainly looks likely) then you will be taking years off the next generations.

    Hard to measure, but itís worth considering if you want to be utilitarian. As a caveat my dadís old and Iím very happy with the status quo. I know people on the forum have lost loved ones. Not trying to be dismissive of that, but itís worth consideration.

    Edited by macmurphy at 11:17:28 01-04-2020
  • General_Martok 1 Apr 2020 11:16:45 1,170 posts
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    Dirt3 wrote:
    Malek86 wrote:
    @Dirt3 if they give you free money in order to stop civil unrest, but that money is worthless, that's not going to do a great job of stopping civil unrest.

    But then again, I suppose civil unrest will become effectively unavoidable at some point.
    It will postpone it for a bit. Which is what governments like doing.

    Kicking stuff into the long grass so someone else has to deal with the problem. Take the Greek debt crisis as a prime example.

    Only this time the grass isn't very long and the kick won't be anywhere near far enough.

    None of this is without precedent. The exact circumstances this time may be different, but history tells us everything we need to know.
    Please let me know which time period I should look for the entire world economy being close to closed due to a pandemic?

    1918 - No the world was just getting over WW1 and the entire world didn't stop - it probably should have.
    1929- 1939- Great Depression? No that was a financial crisis that led to banks taking all your money to the grave. Economic activity still existed and wasn't prohibited.

    2009? See Great Depression but this time the banks were bailed out so most people didn't lose their money overnight.

    The 2 world wars don't count cause they had economies focused on 1 goal.

    There is no precedent to what's happening now. The best we can do is look at the past and take pieces from each of the experiences to make a best guess as to what the effect of this is and what the best course of action is. As this hasn't happened before we don't know if our guesses are going to be right with any certainty at all.

    Civil unrest during a pandemic? What better way to spread a disease.

    Edited by General_Martok at 11:18:05 01-04-2020
  • Dirt3 1 Apr 2020 11:18:18 984 posts
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    Malek86 wrote:
    @Dirt3 true. Well, history also tells us that such crisis have always been overcome. I wouldn't be worried about the world in the long term. It's survived much worse.

    I'm more worried about myself and my family in case things go deep south.
    I think that is true. The world survived the black death, world wars and it will survive this.

    Macroeconomics cares little for the individual though.
  • Not-a-reviewer 1 Apr 2020 11:22:00 6,183 posts
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    Dirt3 wrote:
    RobAnybody wrote:
    Rodney wrote:
    I don't want to sound too trumpy, but I am still fairly worried about economic collapse being a bigger risk than the virus itself.
    I've been thinking this for some time but of course if it's mentioned in a forum people immediately accuse you of being a capitalist and putting money before people. What those people don't realise is how important the economy is to the health of countries and an economic crisis will cause more suffering and more deaths than COVID-19

    Not saying we should do nothing, but I really hope they can start rolling out antibody testinf as soon as possible so people with immunity can start getting back to work.
    I fully agree on both counts.

    I think that the current restrictions in many countries have gone over the top - yes, something needs to be done but this wholesale "don't leave your homes! close all non-essential businesses!" smacks of being dangerously knee-jerky. Common sense is what is needed; certainly some restrictions are required to safeguard the health of those who are vulnerable and the elderly, along with the assorted health services who are stretched at the best of times, but almost shutting down the world economy? Nahhh, not a great idea by any stretch of the imagination.
    It will be 2-3 months from now before public opinion builds to restart the economy, whatever the cost.

    At some point even the people who think they can still work will realise they can't because either a) they are missing a crucial service/item from someone that has stopped or b) there is no customer base for their services.

    There will of course still be some work that will continue (so for example maintaining the electrical power grid), but the people in that won't be enough to maintain political momentum for shutdown.

    Hopefully over time the government will get more "resolution" in what businesses need to shut down. For example I think there is a lot of manufacturing in shutdown at the moment that just doesn't need to be. What's needed is careful in work policy and environmental assessment to make sure that working conditions limit the spread of the virus as much as possible.
    I suspect some will restart in a few months and thereíll be some relaxation of the rules. I wouldnít be surprised if the home working where possible remains in place for longer than that and limitations on supermarkets/shopping, travel and large gatherings go on longer.

    I can see this forever changing some industries though, online food shopping has had a huge boost from this and the industry has stepped up what itís doing. Iíve used them for years as wandering around a supermarket is a waste of time when I could be doing something else.
  • Dirt3 1 Apr 2020 11:26:54 984 posts
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    Not-a-reviewer wrote:

    I can see this forever changing some industries though, online food shopping has had a huge boost from this and the industry has stepped up what itís doing. Iíve used them for years as wandering around a supermarket is a waste of time when I could be doing something else.
    Very much agree. Businesses that will survive will be the ones that rapidly adjust to the new environment and some of our habits will be changed forever. High street retail was already in its death throes. This could be the thing that finishes it off.
  • JamboWayOh 1 Apr 2020 11:32:33 18,792 posts
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    Maybe we should, I don't know, start properly taxing all these rich billionaires and their billion dollar companies.
  • beastmaster 1 Apr 2020 11:37:43 20,451 posts
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    The travel industry is quite in interesting one.

    People rightly complain about price hikes during school holidays. Now that people are getting used to staying at home, when they try and do that again and people refuse to go, maybe they'll change their stance on it. Dunno.

    People do have the power to change things. What will happen after this, who knows.
  • JamboWayOh 1 Apr 2020 11:39:27 18,792 posts
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    Speaking of the power to change things, I see Bolsonaro is doing his best to make himself extremely unpopular and unelectable.
  • Nexus_6 1 Apr 2020 11:40:22 4,880 posts
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    @Dandy11 Great! I wasn't meaning 'your' experience as Dandy11's - I was meaning people generally.
    Not everyone is out driving around. Many have a very narrow view of their immediate oustide and down to the local shop. Know what I mean?
  • PazJohnMitch 1 Apr 2020 11:42:09 15,689 posts
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    JamboWayOh wrote:
    Maybe we should, I don't know, start properly taxing all these rich billionaires and their billion dollar companies.
    To do this needs a global approach as billionaires can live anywhere, they are not tied to a single location.

    If the UK raised taxes on millionaires and billionaires they would just relocate (which many have, just look at where our F1 drivers live). So instead our government takes the view that a very small cut of a huge pot is better than a different country getting the money instead.
  • Jono62 1 Apr 2020 11:42:43 24,799 posts
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    Yeah, where I am it seems people are sticking to the rules and you hardly see anyone. I'm guessing it might be bit different in the city centre.
  • Load_2.0 1 Apr 2020 11:43:09 31,384 posts
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    JamboWayOh wrote:
    Speaking of the power to change things, I see Bolsonaro is doing his best to make himself extremely unpopular and unelectable.
    It's a dream come true for him.

    A virus that kills the elderly or unwell? Perfect! He saved billions when he raised the retirement age. Imagine the savings from zero pension payments.

    Kills those with underlying health conditions? Boom another drain on the economy dealt with.
  • Dirt3 1 Apr 2020 11:47:14 984 posts
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    PazJohnMitch wrote:
    JamboWayOh wrote:
    Maybe we should, I don't know, start properly taxing all these rich billionaires and their billion dollar companies.
    To do this needs a global approach as billionaires can live anywhere, they are not tied to a single location.

    If the UK raised taxes on millionaires and billionaires they would just relocate (which many have, just look at where our F1 drivers live). So instead our government takes the view that a very small cut of a huge pot is better than a different country getting the money instead.
    Plus, if you tax companies like amazon, so for example a 5% e-tail tax on everything that ships through them in the UK, then all they will do is pass that on to the customer.

    I do believe there should be things like e-tail taxes though, if only because they would have helped smooth the transition from high street retail to e-tail, as there would be less price difference.
  • X201 1 Apr 2020 11:49:49 20,571 posts
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    beastmaster wrote:
    The travel industry is quite in interesting one.

    People rightly complain about price hikes during school holidays.
    I did think about that.
    The airlines always jump to the "Market forces" defence when the want to validate price hikes in Summer, I know people's jobs are at risk, but there's part of me that would want to say "Market forces innit" when they start asking for bailouts.
  • JamboWayOh 1 Apr 2020 11:52:39 18,792 posts
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    PazJohnMitch wrote:
    JamboWayOh wrote:
    Maybe we should, I don't know, start properly taxing all these rich billionaires and their billion dollar companies.
    To do this needs a global approach as billionaires can live anywhere, they are not tied to a single location.

    If the UK raised taxes on millionaires and billionaires they would just relocate (which many have, just look at where our F1 drivers live). So instead our government takes the view that a very small cut of a huge pot is better than a different country getting the money instead.
    Perhaps, but it still doesn't escape the clear fact that we're definitely not in this together and this drive to get people back to work, especially in America's case, is not just about the economy but to keep those shareholders in their finery. They're not the ones risking their lives.
  • Load_2.0 1 Apr 2020 11:52:42 31,384 posts
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    The biggest issue is the testing. It's idiotic that we aren't testing in vast numbers.

    We have companies shipping millions of tests out of the UK because we haven't set up the infrastructure to use them in sufficient quantities.

    This means we have been prioritizing testing those with severe symptoms. This clearly skews the mortality rate.

    If you look at Iceland as the most tested nation on the planet, Iceland has a critical rate of 1.17% and a mortality rate of 0.176%. Their testing suggests over 50% have no symptoms.

    Mass testing needs to be the priority.
  • JamboWayOh 1 Apr 2020 11:53:48 18,792 posts
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    Load_2.0 wrote:
    JamboWayOh wrote:
    Speaking of the power to change things, I see Bolsonaro is doing his best to make himself extremely unpopular and unelectable.
    It's a dream come true for him.

    A virus that kills the elderly or unwell? Perfect! He saved billions when he raised the retirement age. Imagine the savings from zero pension payments.

    Kills those with underlying health conditions? Boom another drain on the economy dealt with.
    He seems to be doing everything he can to ruin his support from what I can see.
  • Dirt3 1 Apr 2020 11:55:02 984 posts
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    I think airlines to some degree are part of the national infrastructure.

    If you lose competing airlines, then the cost of travel, which some people on here seem to like, will go up massively.

    I think the government should bail some of them out. But it should absolutely wipe out the shareholders and debt holders as it does so.
  • You-can-call-me-kal 1 Apr 2020 12:04:47 19,421 posts
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    fontgeeksogood wrote:
    Fuck the economy. If this doesn't teach us how over important we place our current flavor of capitalism over everything, that's a bigger problem than the current covid imo.
    I get the general sentiment and thereís lots of lessons to be learned from all this. But itís worth bearing in mind that socialism still has an economy, and actually where socialist states have often struggled most is in the face of these kind of circumstances, because theyíre utterly dependent on people working (literally the essence of a socialist economy).

    Again I fully agree that capitalism has stagnated in our country and this is a massive wake up call.
  • robthehermit 1 Apr 2020 12:07:04 7,708 posts
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    What I find annoying is the z-list "celebrities" publicising themselves because a friend of a friend knows someone who died from the virus and this is somehow supposed to be newsworthy or of interest. I get that putting a semi recognisable face on the news can sometimes help get the message to the mongs whose life revolves around what the Kardashians or the "real" housewives are doing on a day to day basis, but on the whole they can all just fuck off.
  • captbirdseye 1 Apr 2020 12:09:04 9,565 posts
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    A bit them tell us to stay at home while they move around their 30 room mansion and giant garden.
  • KnuttinAtoll 1 Apr 2020 12:12:37 8,106 posts
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    No economy means people don't earn money to pay for food and bills. If governments keep printing money that will devalue more and more, to the point it becomes worthless.

    Barter system (which is what money replaced, for good reason) is really not what you want, as those who don't have commodities/goods that are in demand will be fucked. Wars can start over this.

    It's been a few weeks only and I'm already reading about the danger of social unrest in parts of Italy, and China even.

    There will have to come a point where governments will have to weigh off between risk of CV deaths vs damage limitation to their economies. Not envying those involved in that decision.
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