| Okeydoke, I only skimmed the lot, sorry. |
Sony may use download service to stop piracy, bankrupt retailers? • Page 2
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Teeth 7,987 posts
Seen 10 years ago
Registered 18 years ago -
CerealKey 2,860 posts
Seen 12 years ago
Registered 19 years agoFreek wrote:
CerealKey wrote:
But Nintendo and MS are making the same moves, the PC Market is already dancing about in the download-only retail park.
No they aren't, they're giving the people who want it as an option, they're not in anyway completly switching over, not untill consumer demand is there.
Consumer demand is there. Look at the mods scene and people willing to download massive amounts of data for a new style of game. Look at the smaller developers on the PC Market who are running outfits that allow only downloads. Look at EA starting to shift exclusive stuff to punters through their service for its two biggest PC franchises. They are all dipping their toes into the water and I think they are going to like it. -
Freek 7,682 posts
Seen 8 years ago
Registered 18 years agoDipping yes, swimming no. The vast overal majority of releases are still on disc, and even the stuff that is offered online in most cases has a CD option aswell.
This sort of thing is just in it's infancy and a long long way away from completly replacing CD/DVDs. -
JammyB 756 posts
Seen 2 days ago
Registered 19 years agoIt's inevitable, the only way this can be stopped is if the retailers completely boycott any companies doing this and, as someone mentioned, actually refusing to stock the PS3 (for example). It's not going to happen though and these consoles are going to be slowly eased in using both physical and digital distribution. Game and Gamestation are frogs in warming water and if I owned shares in either I would be selling them right now.
Make no mistakes though, this isn't going to make games cheaper. Do you honestly believe the publishers will lower the price or do you not think they'll simply take the middleman's cut for themselves? There will be no competition between retailers, game prices will stay high for months and years after launch and the pre-owned market will be gone. Imagine if iTunes was the only way to hear music and each track cost £3 and £1 per year to renew. That's the future I see as inevitable and not one I will part of. -
JammyB 756 posts
Seen 2 days ago
Registered 19 years agoWell I'm not saying it'll happen with the PS3. I'm just speculating that this is the beginning of something that might take a few generations. -
CerealKey 2,860 posts
Seen 12 years ago
Registered 19 years agofrod wrote:
This is a very strange discussion. Are Sony now suddenly disregarding blu-ray? Or did hard drives suddenly become cheaper than optical disks?
Blu-ray can still exist without games. Film companies which aren't generally attached to a particular distributor are still distributing media and looking like they will for sometime to come. Although some are making moves on a smaller scale to join in the net distribution framework. However, they still have their multiple revenue sources to fall back on.
This whole drive is really because there is only a small chance to get money from a punter for a game. Publishers want more of that money coming back to them rather going off to retailers, distributors and manufacturing costs. As soon as one goes for it the others are going to follow. Total online distribution. And it makes more sense for a console to do it. A complete library of games available at a touch of a button. Either for a monthly subscription fee, one-off ownership payments or occasional rentals.
Saying it is a long long way away is being a bit a short-sighted. It's on the horizon. I can see it. TV Networks are pushing for network speeds and capacity to start video on demand. Internet2 is sitting around the corner. Everything is shifting into place. -
CerealKey 2,860 posts
Seen 12 years ago
Registered 19 years agoA generation is only as long as Sony, MS and Nintendo want it to be. -
Freek 7,682 posts
Seen 8 years ago
Registered 18 years agoCerealKey wrote:
A generation is only as long as Sony, MS and Nintendo want it to be.
No, it isn't. The endless delay of the PS3 really shows that. The technology has to be there and the consumer demand has to be there to support it.
And neither really exist at this moment to completly replace solid state media. It's really naive to think you can just come in and replace the highstreet. It's how people are used to buying things for themselfs and other people.
It's not going to change in a hurry, it's going to take allot of time.
It's going to grow, it's going to gain market share, but not in a hurry. -
Khanivor 44,800 posts
Seen 2 days ago
Registered 20 years agoDigi distribution - great idea in theory, gonan fuck the consumer in the ass in practice.
Unless games are released to third parties who then distribute them for a price that the 3rd party sets then this will be a case of hundreds of little monopolies fucking the consumer in the ass. Do you know what happnes when you fuck the consumer in the ass? Well, in this case they will have to take it or not play the games they want to play.
Want to play Half-Life 3? Well buy it via Steam, at the price Valve sets, or don't play it at all. Want to play Burnout: Burntout? Buy it via EA's system at the price they set or don't buy it at all? Want to play GTA:Bognor Regis? Buy it an extreme premium from Rockstar's service or don't buy it at all.
It will be the equivalent on only being able to buy and rent 20th Century Fox DVDs from a 20th Century Fox DVD shop, Warner from Warner, etc, except the huge reductions in cost to the producers of material will not be passed on to the consumer. Why should they be? Who will Rockstar be in competition with to distribute GTA5? No one. It will be a set of seller's market the likes the world has never seen.
The only way this won't happen is if console manufacturers insist in licensing rules that the games must be distributed through their own system. Which will still mean the consumer getting fucked in the ass but that little bit more as Sony and MS and Ninty will want their cut too.
On the other hand, maybe this could usher in the fabled universal console. -
CerealKey 2,860 posts
Seen 12 years ago
Registered 19 years agoIt's not replacing the highstreet though is it? It's replacing gamestores a tiny fraction of the highstreet.
People are very adaptable to new technology especially when that technology is focused towards tech literate people. Just look at iTunes Music Store which is currently ticking a counter away for the sale of the billionth song.
And Xbox and Xbox360 was only a four year gap. That isn't very long at all. It wouldn't be much to rip out the disc player and sell it as a expansion for watching movies and leave a core unit to play games through downloadable content. -
Freek 7,682 posts
Seen 8 years ago
Registered 18 years agoAnd making a verry verry tiny proffit, the reason it exists is mainly to boost sales of the Apple Ipod.
And even in the music industrie where buying digitally is verry popular CDs have not gone away. Infact sales of CDs where up this year.
And it would be a hell of a big step to do that, becuase you'd need to convince your entire costomer base who have previously bought things in stores to switch. That isn't something you just do, that takes years, maybe even a decade.
And if a large percentage of people value buying second hand things and owning the game, solid state may never go away compleltly.
Edited by Freek at 23:25:46 22-02-2006 -
CerealKey 2,860 posts
Seen 12 years ago
Registered 19 years agoThe profit margin of Apple has nothing to do with the take-up, has it? They aren't making a profit because the labels want more cash.
And the customer base isn't going to go:
"Holy shit! Buying games from the internet through my console? That's insane? This is so unlike iTunes."
Were are talking about a tech literate generation. That is buying, reading, listening, selling and sharing stuff across the internet. The only thing holding back a shift into online is the lack of infrastructure to homes. Once that's complete. It's worth shifting into online distribution. And I'll say it again, this generation is about testing those waters and teaching the consumer that the online method is the easiest, most natural way to buy games. -
Khanivor 44,800 posts
Seen 2 days ago
Registered 20 years agoOh, it ain;t gonna happen this year or next but it will happen. How many peeps go the barber for their shave? Who gets monks to scribe their favourite reading material?
Once enough of the market is buying a product in a particular fashion the old ways will be phased out. The profit to be made from the new metohd will eventualy outstrip the loss that is made from abandoning the old. How many homes still have cassette decks in them? Just about eveyone poplualted by someone who was buying music up to the 1990s. When was the last time you say a music cassette for sale?
Add on to the fact that the very technological nature of gaming makes its consumers even easier to entice into new technological ideas and methods will work inits favour. Music lovers are already being sold on digi distribution by exclusive tracks only available from iTunes or other extortionatly priced services that send you a few million bits of informtation down the telephone line. Marketplace is bound to offer new levels, teams, weapons, etc for a premium that will boost your store bought game. Marketplace only version of the full game, similar to the deluxe editions you already get which charge an extra 20 quid for a bigger box and a cute in-game avatar, will not be far behind.
Especialy when you factor in the other apsect appealing to the majority of gaming types - you won't have to get off yer arse at all. Consideirng the premium people are already willing to pay for having a circle of defrosted industrial dough slathered in the scrappings from a 20 gallon drum of tomato sludge delivered to their door, paying through the ass for a game shunted down their telephone line ain't gonna bother enough of the unthnking consumer masses for this depressing scenario to not become reality sometime in the not too-distant future.
Edited by Khanivor at 23:35:17 22-02-2006 -
Freek 7,682 posts
Seen 8 years ago
Registered 18 years agoCerealKey wrote:
The profit margin of Apple has nothing to do with the take-up, has it? They aren't making a profit because the labels want more cash.
And the customer base isn't going to go:
"Holy shit! Buying games from the internet through my console? That's insane? This is so unlike iTunes."
Were are talking about a tech literate generation. That is buying, reading, listening, selling and sharing stuff across the internet. The only thing holding back a shift into online is the lack of infrastructure to homes. Once that's complete. It's worth shifting into online distribution. And I'll say it again, this generation is about testing those waters and teaching the consumer that the online method is the easiest, most natural way to buy games.
And these verry same tech literate people are also saying, no I want to buy stuff second hand, and trade things in and have a shopping experience. It isn't the most natural thing to do since you loose all that. In certain cases it's convenient but it's not yet a comeplete solution.
Itunes has not replaced the music store, neither has online distribution of games and it won't any time soon.
Much like Itunes it is an option for some things. A growing market yes, replacing, not by a long shot.
And it'll take a long time for that mentality to change.
I absolutly agree that marketplace is going to be big, but it won't be the only way to buy Xbox games for years to come.
As hard as Valve is pushing Steam it's also using EA to publish it's games and expansions the normal way.
Edited by Freek at 23:45:52 22-02-2006 -
Cheezit 42 posts
Registered 18 years agoCerealKey wrote:
It's not replacing the highstreet though is it? It's replacing gamestores a tiny fraction of the highstreet.
People are very adaptable to new technology especially when that technology is focused towards tech literate people. Just look at iTunes Music Store which is currently ticking a counter away for the sale of the billionth song.
And Xbox and Xbox360 was only a four year gap. That isn't very long at all. It wouldn't be much to rip out the disc player and sell it as a expansion for watching movies and leave a core unit to play games through downloadable content.
Specialist gamestores are 30-40% of the market both here and in the US. So just taking that is serious business (plus if you take their business you shut down the pre-owned market).
As I said in an earlier post, I think the platform owners would really like to own the relationship with the customer exclusively, but I don't think they will be allowed to, at least not in Europe where we have a lot of competition laws to combat this kind of thing. Having said that, I still think the current retail model will be uneconomic by the end of the next cycle; specialist games retailers are already exposed to traditional ecommerce, that don't have to carry their high property costs, and from generalist retailers who can use games as a traffic driver (supermarkets love games because they work on overall margins of around 6% - games run at 30%+ margin at SRP), digital distribution is just another nail in their coffin. They have 5-6 years tops, and I'll take anyone's money who cares to bet on that. -
Khanivor 44,800 posts
Seen 2 days ago
Registered 20 years agoIt's dem kids that will do it. I wonder what the figures are on the percentage of kids that buy their music exclusively via digi distribution in comparrison to older types.
When Apple et all start setting up tiny retail zones with iTunes docking stations where you can plug in yer player and debit/credit card and download tracks without even having to have a broadband connection at home or work then the day of the retail music store is truely numbered.
Selling physical content will become a niche market, like bespoke suits. -
monochrome_blue 538 posts
Seen 11 months ago
Registered 17 years agoPike wrote:
DrDamn wrote:
Look on the brighter side - developers will cut out all the pre-rendered cut scene crap to bring titles down to a more managable size :-D.
Don't count on it. By the time downloading will replace shops 100 Mbit+ connections will be the rule.
A guy who is quite involved in video on demand services told me last year that he wasn't sure it would ever happen for games, simply because the bandwidth requirements always get higher.
For example, a PS1 game filled a CD, a PS2 games fills a DVD (some need 2) and a PS3 game will fill a blu-ray disc. Yes, we'll 100mb connections very soon, but it'll still take hours to download the things.
The only real way to do it is to stream the data, but that would require a 100mb connection with no download limit (or a very high one).
I think it's more likely that they'll use the connectivity to DRM the discs, like many PC games do now, although there will be huge resistance to this.
As another guy once said to me, "you'll do well to beat the bandwidth of a letterbox" -
monochrome_blue 538 posts
Seen 11 months ago
Registered 17 years agoCerealKey wrote:
A generation is only as long as Sony, MS and Nintendo want it to be.
Yes, but this generation was curtailed by MS as they were losing on it, the next on will be longer. They won't invest BILLIONS in new hardware then ruse to replace it believe me. -
Cheezit 42 posts
Registered 18 years agomonochrome_blue wrote:
Yes, but this generation was curtailed by MS as they were losing on it, the next on will be longer. They won't invest BILLIONS in new hardware then ruse to replace it believe me.
They won't have to. There's plenty of upgrade potential within the current hardware of something like 360 (or even PS3 - look at the hard disk rumours about that) to help the move to digital distribution. All the real work is at the network and infrastructure level anyway, so they can grow the online model without betting the farm on yet another hardware launch. -
Cheezit 42 posts
Registered 18 years agomonochrome_blue wrote:
Pike wrote:
DrDamn wrote:
Look on the brighter side - developers will cut out all the pre-rendered cut scene crap to bring titles down to a more managable size :-D.
Don't count on it. By the time downloading will replace shops 100 Mbit+ connections will be the rule.
A guy who is quite involved in video on demand services told me last year that he wasn't sure it would ever happen for games, simply because the bandwidth requirements always get higher.
For example, a PS1 game filled a CD, a PS2 games fills a DVD (some need 2) and a PS3 game will fill a blu-ray disc. Yes, we'll 100mb connections very soon, but it'll still take hours to download the things.
The only real way to do it is to stream the data, but that would require a 100mb connection with no download limit (or a very high one).
I think it's more likely that they'll use the connectivity to DRM the discs, like many PC games do now, although there will be huge resistance to this.
As another guy once said to me, "you'll do well to beat the bandwidth of a letterbox"
Yeah, and "you can't put a download under the Christmas tree". People have been saying this kind of thing for the last ten years. Somehow games are 'different' to music and movies and won't be affected the same way. Its nonsense. Fact is , games are more not less, likely to move completely online than other media, principally because there is more incentive for publishers to do so (games publishers look on with envy at the movie industry's multiple repackagings and reselling of the same content, and want to beat that model), and because games because of their interactivity are naturally suited to online. The only reason it hasn't happened already is Sony. Sony have been very slow to 'get' online, and have actively seen it as a threat to their content business (hence crap like ATRAC and losing the music market to Apple), but that's changed; Sony have to embrace online to counter the dual threats of Apple in music and MS in games, and once Sony go online properly the rest of the publishers can follow. -
Khanivor 44,800 posts
Seen 2 days ago
Registered 20 years agoMore to it then just Sony. The place where it would happen first is on the PC (far more PC gamers have broaband then slackjawed console owners) and yet it is still a niche market there. However, it is on the PC where the idea is being trialed and showing signs of success. -
Carlo 21,801 posts
Seen 2 days ago
Registered 16 years agoHasn't a significant advantage with the 360 been the 'online market place'?
Wasn't the number of xbox360 purchases that connected their systems to the internet 'extremely high' and subject to a big press release?
How long before you start seeing choices like "New game x for £30 in the shops (with a manual and box etc), or download it via marketplace for £25"?
I have no idea about the prices in this scenario, but the bean-counters will work out the 'value' an average customer attaches to a game's box and manual, and second hand price it'll get from the retail shops (who are currently ripping us of) and discount the online version accordingly...
MS's 'Live' is already paving the way... It's just (for the moment) the games are not 'premium' ones found in the shops.
The PC 'download and play' market is even more 'matured' IMO. I got my (admitedly beta) key and software for Dungeons & Dragons Online without contacting *any* shop for it... How long will it be before buying a 'key' online becomes the 'norm'? -
Max_Powers 1,256 posts
Seen 4 days ago
Registered 17 years agoMuch earlier then that I hope
I for one would celebrate the day when I can download all my games from a central server, whenever I feel like (mostly late nights on a weekend).
I won't miss going to shops to buy a game with crappy, badly localised packaging and a shoddy manual. If they even stock them at all! (welcome Psychonaust and I love Katamari). The days that game packaging actually had any additional value have long gone.
And if you want it that bad, just download the packaging as well.
I won't take 5 years for this to become a mainstream practise. The only thing that will keep this back is maybe the DRM, but looking at the success of iTunes (which I don't use because of it) that's not really a concern for a lot of people. Especially not with games, where it is already hard to make a back up of the product you just bought. -
Max_Powers 1,256 posts
Seen 4 days ago
Registered 17 years agoThat's what I mean with the DRM as a possible handicap - any successfull gaming download service should allow you to back up the games stored on your hard disk (to writeable HD-DVD's or BlueRays) if this direct download system is to happen in this generation (or MS and Sony are to hand-out Terrabyte HD's). I don't care then that you can only play it on 5 machines maximum due to some code detection system (and the HDMI format of the next generation).
Sure there are more hurdles (bandwith for instance) but all this is fixable. Music was first, now movies and games. 20Mb connections are already very common in the Dutch and Scandinavian markets. -
sam_spade 15,745 posts
Seen 1 week ago
Registered 20 years agoDRM isn't such a big problem for consoles because they are closed systems. You aren't going to be moaning that you can't play your PS2 version of GTA on an Xbox.
With music and video it is a problem because are multiple ways to access the content. -
Carlo 21,801 posts
Seen 2 days ago
Registered 16 years agosam_spade wrote:
Sam I think the DRM would more likely be used to block the second hand market.
DRM isn't such a big problem for consoles because they are closed systems. -
Cheezit 42 posts
Registered 18 years agofrod wrote:
£70 for a 20GB drive with only 13GB useable meaning that maybe two games can be stored at one time, says no.
One word; Vista. You won't be restricted to 360 storage alone; you'll be able to store (not play) elswhere on your home network. -
Cheezit 42 posts
Registered 18 years agoKhanivor wrote:
More to it then just Sony. The place where it would happen first is on the PC (far more PC gamers have broaband then slackjawed console owners) and yet it is still a niche market there. However, it is on the PC where the idea is being trialed and showing signs of success.
I'm aware that PC is where it will happen first, it already is, my point was that PC download won't really change retail, console download, and more importantly SONY console download, will. -
Cheezit 42 posts
Registered 18 years agofrod wrote:
Cheezit wrote:
Yeah, great. A PC costs how much again?
frod wrote:
£70 for a 20GB drive with only 13GB useable meaning that maybe two games can be stored at one time, says no.
One word; Vista. You won't be restricted to 360 storage alone; you'll be able to store (not play) elswhere on your home network.
Hardly anyone is going to have a console on a network without a PC being involved somewhere. And anyway, you're coming at this from the wrong angle; we're not talking about what customers want here, you're not important
, we're talking about the manufacturer's techno-utopian future.
Edited by Cheezit at 15:18:07 23-02-2006 -
For example, a PS1 game filled a CD, a PS2 games fills a DVD (some need 2) and a PS3 game will fill a blu-ray disc.
Very few PS2 games even stretch to dual-layer DVDs. If they do, most of that is taken up by video. Most of the 2 DVD games cheat to make it look like more content, in the same way that a lot of 2 disc DVD Video releases can easily fit on one disc.
, we're talking about the manufacturer's techno-utopian future. 
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